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We see prediction markets not as a winner-take-all market but as a burgeoning category, much like social networks, where there can be many winners. Social networks reshaped the way we create and consume information and media. Prediction markets are in the early innings of doing the same. And just as social networks evolved and distinguished themselves along different dimensions — media type, social graphs, interest graphs, and more — we expect prediction markets to follow a similar trajectory. In the years ahead, we anticipate a proliferation in the intersection of markets and media, with a rich design space for novel market interaction types, mechanisms, and vertical niches.
Today, existing platforms are centralized and operator-dependent, limiting which markets get created and relying on market makers or liquidity providers to keep them alive. As a result, today’s markets are narrowly optimized for a small set of events like elections or major sporting outcomes. The opportunity is far broader — to capture the full spectrum of cultural conversation, from breaking news to everyday opinions.
One day, prediction markets will be everywhere. Melee is building toward that future with a permissionless platform designed for scale and uncapped upside. On Melee, anyone can make a market about anything — from hard facts like election outcomes to opinion-based questions about culture and society — unlocking the creativity of the internet to shape what gets priced and when.
Melee’s breakthrough is a new primitive called Viral Markets. With Viral Markets, creators can launch questions of any kind — factual or opinion-based — while users speculate through a pricing mechanism that rewards them for being early and right. Speculators gain exposure not only to the outcome of a question, but also to the growth of the market itself. This combines the finality of prediction markets with the asymmetric upside of tokens, solving the cold start problem that has long constrained the category.
For creators, Melee offers something other speculative vehicles have historically lacked: a sustainable way to monetize influence without reputational risk. At scale, this creates a network where creators, speculators, and consumers crowdsource truth without gatekeepers.
Share Dialog
We see prediction markets not as a winner-take-all market but as a burgeoning category, much like social networks, where there can be many winners. Social networks reshaped the way we create and consume information and media. Prediction markets are in the early innings of doing the same. And just as social networks evolved and distinguished themselves along different dimensions — media type, social graphs, interest graphs, and more — we expect prediction markets to follow a similar trajectory. In the years ahead, we anticipate a proliferation in the intersection of markets and media, with a rich design space for novel market interaction types, mechanisms, and vertical niches.
Today, existing platforms are centralized and operator-dependent, limiting which markets get created and relying on market makers or liquidity providers to keep them alive. As a result, today’s markets are narrowly optimized for a small set of events like elections or major sporting outcomes. The opportunity is far broader — to capture the full spectrum of cultural conversation, from breaking news to everyday opinions.
One day, prediction markets will be everywhere. Melee is building toward that future with a permissionless platform designed for scale and uncapped upside. On Melee, anyone can make a market about anything — from hard facts like election outcomes to opinion-based questions about culture and society — unlocking the creativity of the internet to shape what gets priced and when.
Melee’s breakthrough is a new primitive called Viral Markets. With Viral Markets, creators can launch questions of any kind — factual or opinion-based — while users speculate through a pricing mechanism that rewards them for being early and right. Speculators gain exposure not only to the outcome of a question, but also to the growth of the market itself. This combines the finality of prediction markets with the asymmetric upside of tokens, solving the cold start problem that has long constrained the category.
For creators, Melee offers something other speculative vehicles have historically lacked: a sustainable way to monetize influence without reputational risk. At scale, this creates a network where creators, speculators, and consumers crowdsource truth without gatekeepers.
Together, they blend technical depth, mechanism design, and an eye for virality to bring crypto-native ideas to the mainstream.
We’re excited to co-lead Melee’s seed round and partner with them on this journey. Melee it.
Sign up for early access to Melee: alpha.melee.markets
All information contained herein is for general information purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any investment and should not be used in the evaluation of the merits of making any investment decision. It should not be relied upon for accounting, legal or tax advice or investment recommendations. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment. None of the opinions or positions provided herein are intended to be treated as legal advice or to create an attorney-client relationship. Certain information contained in here has been obtained from third-party sources, including from portfolio companies of funds managed by Variant. While taken from sources believed to be reliable, Variant has not independently verified such information. Any investments or portfolio companies mentioned, referred to, or described are not representative of all investments in vehicles managed by Variant, and there can be no assurance that the investments will be profitable or that other investments made in the future will have similar characteristics or results. A list of investments made by funds managed by Variant (excluding investments for which the issuer has not provided permission for Variant to disclose publicly as well as unannounced investments in publicly traded digital assets) is available at https://variant.fund/portfolio. Variant makes no representations about the enduring accuracy of the information or its appropriateness for a given situation. This post reflects the current opinions of the authors and is not made on behalf of Variant or its Clients and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of Variant, its General Partners, its affiliates, advisors or individuals associated with Variant. The opinions reflected herein are subject to change without being updated. All liability with respect to actions taken or not taken based on the contents of the information contained herein are hereby expressly disclaimed. The content of this post is provided "as is;" no representations are made that the content is error-free.
Together, they blend technical depth, mechanism design, and an eye for virality to bring crypto-native ideas to the mainstream.
We’re excited to co-lead Melee’s seed round and partner with them on this journey. Melee it.
Sign up for early access to Melee: alpha.melee.markets
All information contained herein is for general information purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any investment and should not be used in the evaluation of the merits of making any investment decision. It should not be relied upon for accounting, legal or tax advice or investment recommendations. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment. None of the opinions or positions provided herein are intended to be treated as legal advice or to create an attorney-client relationship. Certain information contained in here has been obtained from third-party sources, including from portfolio companies of funds managed by Variant. While taken from sources believed to be reliable, Variant has not independently verified such information. Any investments or portfolio companies mentioned, referred to, or described are not representative of all investments in vehicles managed by Variant, and there can be no assurance that the investments will be profitable or that other investments made in the future will have similar characteristics or results. A list of investments made by funds managed by Variant (excluding investments for which the issuer has not provided permission for Variant to disclose publicly as well as unannounced investments in publicly traded digital assets) is available at https://variant.fund/portfolio. Variant makes no representations about the enduring accuracy of the information or its appropriateness for a given situation. This post reflects the current opinions of the authors and is not made on behalf of Variant or its Clients and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of Variant, its General Partners, its affiliates, advisors or individuals associated with Variant. The opinions reflected herein are subject to change without being updated. All liability with respect to actions taken or not taken based on the contents of the information contained herein are hereby expressly disclaimed. The content of this post is provided "as is;" no representations are made that the content is error-free.
Jesse Walden and Jack Longarzo
Jesse Walden and Jack Longarzo
1 comment
Prediction markets are poised for significant growth, paralleling the evolution of social networks. Current platforms are centralized and restricted, limiting market possibilities. Enter Melee, a permissionless platform that harnesses creativity in pricing through innovative Viral Markets. This new model empowers users to create diverse speaking points while rewarding timely insights. Leaders of Melee都 step from real-world nodes in the crypto landscape. Discover more about this transformative venture from the mind of @variant.