This summer, the Variant team has been spending time looking ahead to what the rest of 2024 will hold and what we might see heading into 2025. Below, we share a snapshot of what we’re keeping an eye on as we navigate the next wave of crypto development.
What do you think the next year in crypto will hold? We’d love to see your ideas and predictions — share them with us on X (@variantfund) or Warpcast (/variant).
Jesse
Crypto product things I'm excited about for '24-'25 (quick list, not exhaustive):
Mobile becomes the default.
Stablecoin rails get good enough for global fintech adoption, accelerating institutional/regulatory validation.
Surprising formats for prediction markets emerge.
NFTs have another surprising evolution.
The interplay between creator tools/token launchers gets more interesting/safer.
Farcaster channels become wallets/DAOs, do weird/big things.
Telegram leans into mini-apps/wallet/payments.
Frames/blinks find a large-scale social mini-app, validating the “headless” GTM as a way to bootstrap protocol/marketplace liquidity.
Data DAOs/tokenized marketplaces onboard net new users to earning tokens.
For crypto natives, real skin-in-the-game returns to token distributions, resulting in more loyal/engaged users/owners.
Reply to Jesse’s thoughts here.
Crypto infra things I'm excited about for '24-'25 (quick list, not exhaustive):
Institutions start staking.
Chain/wallet abstraction works well enough that users finally get a superior UX (this is the benefit of all the work on scaling/interop/intents, etc).
Modularity matures; second-generation frameworks package integrated-modules that solve fragmentation while maintaining customizability.
ZK has a breakthrough app at the intersection of privacy/offchain-data/onchain action.
Security vulnerabilities become far less common (e.g. in DeFi/interfaces).
Decentralized compute starts to compete on cost AND performance.
MEV market structure matures, optimistically benefiting users.
Reply to Jesse’s thoughts here.
Li
Some developments I think we’ll see in crypto over the next 6 months - year:
Open-source AI turns to crypto for monetization.
Decentralized AI and compute gain steam.
DePIN onboards people to earning their first crypto.
Financialization leading to adverse incentives reaches a tipping point.
Alana
Some of my predictions for crypto in 2024/2025:
Block / CashApp launches a stablecoin.
There’s a third spot ETF, but it’s not what people expect.
PayPal begins to offer a yield-bearing stablecoin (maybe a modification to PYUSD) and it enjoys meaningful adoption in Venmo.
Human verification projects will onboard 100M+
A major talk show host makes an NFT their profile picture.
Farcaster exceeds 3M users and begins to offer meaningful mobile-first distribution.
The breakout AI x Crypto use case is community owned and trained models.
The hype this cycle around decentralized GPU marketplaces turns out to be just that (hype) as supply shortages ease and new types of chips emerge.
We do see an important use case in decentralized training + inference emerge as centralized clouds begin to develop policies around what types of models can run on their servers, but that will take 2+ years to really develop (because regulation is slow)
Building on Bitcoin becomes a dramatically better developer experience.
A well-known traditional finance person writes a thread about Helium (or another depin project).
A popular L2 decides to become its own L1.
At least half of these are wrong.
Reply to Alana’s thoughts here.
Cooper
Some current end-of-year predictions:
Shared sequencers finally launch.
Many proving marketplaces hit testnet.
Rollup FUD quiets as they decentralize.
Ethereum's roadmap gets more clarity.
ZK apps ship to production and actually get used.
Sharding research becomes trendy again.
Reply to Cooper’s thoughts here.
Derek
Meta-level prediction for '24-'25: We transition from the infra to the app portion of this cycle.
Some specific thoughts:
10+ major fintechs launch their own stablecoins.
ETFs begin staking.
A crypto consumer app on Base reaches 10M+ WAU.
Every TradFi megafund tokenizes a product.
A crypto prediction market reaches $1B in monthly volume in a category beyond politics.
BTC is used as a reserve asset for a major global currency.
A top 20 US bank borrows money using DeFi rails.
A DePin network grows to 10M+ users.
A major AAA studio builds an onchain game.
DEX volume surpasses CEX volumes at one point.
A minigame on Telegram/Ton hits 1B players.
Reply to Derek’s thoughts here.
Geoff
12 months from now, I expect there will be much more clarity about what use cases and platforms for agentic AI have PMF in crypto.
Over this period, I think we’ll see several apps get traction and define the first generation of viable use cases. These leading apps will then bootstrap the network effects of agent platforms, influencing which platforms become Schelling points.
The first step in the sequence is building compelling user-facing experiences that leverage agents. Some of the use cases I think are most likely to get early traction:
Token discovery, research, and trading.
Airdrop and yield farming.
Gaming: agents as playable characters and NPCs.
AI companions.
Autonomous content producers.
I’m really excited to see the coming wave of innovation across these and other use cases. It should be a fun time to be a crypto user!
Reply to Geoff’s thoughts here.
Read this next
More fresh posts from Variant
Daniel Barabander: Examining SEC v. Consensys
Daniel compares the wallet/swaps allegations the SEC has made in two separate cases against Coinbase and Consensys and drills down on some of the SEC's specific claims.
Derek Walkush & Jack Gorman: The Future of DEX Trading
Since launching UniswapX, Uniswap—the largest decentralized market—has become a case study on the impact of intents protocols on automated market maker (AMM) liquidity. Derek and Jack explore how trades are being filled—and where the trend is heading.
Alana Levin: How to Build a Pitch Deck
According to Alana, “a pitch deck can be a work of art.” You just need to know what goes in it. She believes there are six things every good deck must have. “Everything else can go in the appendix.”
Jake Chervinsky: Biden Gives Democrats a Chance for a Crypto Reset
Jake says President Biden’s decision not to seek reelection could lead to major changes in the crypto regulatory landscape.
Updates from our portfolio
July highlights from the startups we’re proud to invest in
Uniswap Labs released the Uniswap Extension so users can access their wallets from their Google Chrome sidebar.
Morpho became the second-largest lending protocol on Base within one month of launching.
Worldcoin released a developer preview of its new World Chain blockchain.
Blackbird is testing out Pay with Fly at participating restaurants so its members can use crypto to cover their restaurant bills.
Interoperable infrastructure developer Ceramic came out with Ceramic-One, a major update that increases throughput.
Thinking in public
We welcome your input and replies on Warpcast.
Jesse is looking for even more reasons why owning things on the internet is awesome.
Jesse Walden on Warpcast
why is owning these things better/interesting? - identity/data: conveniently bring it with you to any app to enabler richer/personalized experiences - money: faster, cheaper, more control than traditional financial rails - infrastructure/products: minimize platform risk/misalignment, participate in the economic upside of things you contribute to - art/media: better incentives for creators/collectors; timestamped provenance onchain is a growing social signal, and theirs potential for collectors to profit from their patronage. - experience/attention: typically monetized indirectlyvia ads/media, can now be monetized directly (e.g. prediction markets/memecoins)
Li wants to know why AI agents need crypto.
Li Jin on Warpcast
I don't understand the reasoning behind "AI agents will need to transact via crypto" - why? I've seen AI agents where users just auth with their own traditional payment credentials to interact with websites. Why crypto? (trying to engage in a good faith discussion)
Geoff wants to know who’s working on stablecoin savings and payments.
Facilitating the use of stablecoins for payments and saving is one of the biggest opportunities in crypto. What are some of the most promising startups working on this?
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Disclaimer: This post is for general information purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any investment and should not be used in the evaluation of the merits of making any investment decision. It should not be relied upon for accounting, legal or tax advice or investment recommendations. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment. Certain information contained in here has been obtained from third-party sources, including from portfolio companies of funds managed by Variant. While taken from sources believed to be reliable, Variant has not independently verified such information. Variant makes no representations about the enduring accuracy of the information or its appropriateness for a given situation. This post reflects the current opinions of the authors and is not made on behalf of Variant or its Clients and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of Variant, its General Partners, its affiliates, advisors or individuals associated with Variant. The opinions reflected herein are subject to change without being updated.
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Back with a fresh edition of our weekly digest where we hand-pick some of our favorite posts over the past month-ish.
First up, @jackson dives into the topic of "taste" in a world of overwhelming abundance of choices in consumption and creation. Jackson emphasizes that true taste arises from prolonged attention, skill, and personal expression, suggesting that slowing down and immersing yourself deeply into your interests leads to richer experiences and better quality in both consumption and creation. https://paragraph.xyz/@jd/taste-time-attention
Next, the @variant team — @jesse @li @alanadlevin @derekmw23 @gham1lt0n — take stock of what the rest of 2024 will hold and what we might see heading into 2025, highlighting the trends and ideas that will shape the next wave of crypto development. https://blog.variant.fund/things-excited-about-crypto
@patwater reviews The Dawn of Everything, using it as a canvas to explore the potential to pioneer new modes of living, working, and playing with the third wave of the web. "Graeber and Wengrow show over and over again how many aspects of human societies weren’t structurally determined but instead reflected conscious choices of the participants. The book shows how today, like every day before and every day thereafter, we as humans have that same choice, if we have courage to look upon the world with wonder once again and see the dawn with new eyes." https://pioneeringspirit.xyz/rewilding-civilization-david-graebers-radical-vision-in-the-dawn-of-everything
Amazing to read all this! Love the concept of what you’re doing here.
Love to hear it, thank you! 🙏
Check out the latest blog post by @variant! The team dives into their predictions for crypto trends in 2024-2025, including the rise of mobile as default, advancements in stablecoin rails, new NFT evolutions, and much more. Share your thoughts with Variant on X or Warpcast!